The future of jobs. Highlights from the World Economic Forum report

 

According to the report of the World Economic Forum The Future of the Job 2018

 in four years, 75 million jobs will be eliminated, but they will be replaced by another 133 million. But the fear that “robots will replace people” is still not true. The wording "simplify and increase the efficiency of work" will be more accurate.

 

The fourth industrial revolution, through automation, big data, AI, and other technologies continue to influence labor markets, national economies, production, and the value of products. Industrial giants are now on a par with technology leaders like Uber, Facebook, and Google, the speed of scaling services is dramatically different from that in the traditional economy, and robots are stepping on people's heels.

 

Companies face many challenges related to technology adoption.

As in front of their employees: someone will have to decide whether to retire, improve their competence or completely change their specialty - because not all employers are ready to train existing employees, but intend to hire new ones.

 

I read all 147 pages of the report and extracted what I thought was the most important. I invite you to discuss this in the comments.

 

 

 

Industrial Revolution

 

In the XVIII-XIX centuries, there was a massive transition from manual labor to machine, from manufactory to factory. A steam engine appeared, thanks to new technologies, the textile industry, the metallurgical industry, and transport developed.

 

The next stage was the Second Industrial Revolution - it began in the second half of the 19th century and continued until the beginning of the 20th century. It was based on the production of high-quality steel, the distribution of railways, electricity, and chemicals.

 

In the late 1980s, the transition from analog to digital technologies began, which is called the Digital Revolution. Its main driving forces were the penetration of the Internet, the spread of computing technology, and the massive use of portable communication devices.

 

Although the Digital Revolution continues, there is already an idea of ​​the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is distinguished by the massive introduction of cyber-physical systems into human production, life, work, and leisure. The main technological trends at the heart of such systems are:

• Big data and analytics

• Autonomous robots

• Modeling and Simulations

• Cloud computing

• Internet of Things

• Information Security

• 3D printing

• augmented reality

 

A new confirmation of the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution was the list of technologies that, according to the WEF survey, companies plan to use.

 

Technologies that companies will adopt by 2022

 

The graph arranges technologies in descending order in proportion to the number of companies that intend to adapt them to their business by 2022. Among the most popular are those that characterize and serve as the basis of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

 

The list includes robots - from stationary, which will be used by 37% of companies, to air and underwater from 19%. Such machines, unlike the “end-to-end technologies” that we see in the leaders, are used for narrower purposes, and the scale of their use depends heavily on industries.

 

 

 

Robot revolution

 

Today, machines do not work as much compared to humans. 71% of working time is human labor, and only 29% is done by machines. By 2025, this figure could change to 48% and 52%, respectively, which means that most of the work will be done by machines.

 

 

 

Such machines include humanoid robots, stationary robots, airborne and underwater robotic vehicles, and non-humanoid ground robots.

 

Financial companies will start using humanoid robots before 2022. This possibility was confirmed by 85% of experts in this field interviewed as part of the study. The driver for the development of both stationary robots and non-humanoid ground robots will be automakers, aerospace companies, and companies associated with the supply of goods.

 

The oil and gas industry will actively use aerial and underwater robots. This may be due to the development of new territories: the oceans. It covers more than 70% of the earth's surface, fraught with a huge amount of minerals. However, it is practically unexplored. If almost 600 people have been in space, then there are only three at the bottom of the Mariinsky Trench, and scientists continue to find new flora and fauna in it. Underwater robots are becoming the eyes and hands of humans and should help the industry find new sources of oil, gas, and other minerals.

 

 

 

Less than a quarter of jobs worldwide can be automated by 70% or more. Machines will be able to perform only part of the tasks, that is, to complement the work of a person, facilitate it and increase efficiency. In order to be in demand, some workers will have to improve their skills and acquire new competencies - in most cases at their own expense, as employers will prefer to hire new specialists instead of retraining existing ones.

 

Change in jobs

 

By 2022, 75 million jobs will not be tied to the economy. The top 10 occupations, which will be reduced in number, will include data entry clerks, accounting staff, factory and assembly shop workers, customer service specialists, administrative managers, auditors, and a number of others.

 

This does not mean that there will be no more such specialists - we are talking about reducing their number. For example, instead of ten people, the chief accountant will sit in the accounting department, who, using normal software, will be responsible for the calculations of the entire company. Instead of call centers with tens and hundreds of people today, banks and telecom operators already use an answering machine designed to solve a number of the most common tasks.

 

In terms of jobs emerging from new technologies, emerging roles according to WEF research will include data scientists and data scientists, artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists, software and application developers and analytics, and sales and marketing professionals. , professionals in the field of digital transformation and IT services.

 

 

 

Russia

 

In the first places among the technologies that the surveyed companies will use until 2022, there are big data analysis, machine learning, the Internet of things, cloud technologies, AR / VR, 3D printing, autonomous cars, and others - the list does not differ much from the general one.

 

New vacancies will appear in the country for managing directors and executives, developers and analysts of software and applications, sales and marketing specialists, heads of operations departments, data analysts, HR specialists, workers of factories and assembly shops, financial and investment advisors, and management specialists risks.

 

At the same time, among the most important skills, the respondents noted creativity, originality and initiative, analytical thinking, active learning and a strategic approach to it, technological design and programming, critical thinking and analysis, emotional intelligence, ability to solve complex problems, leadership and social impact.

 

What is important is how organizations will cope with the shortage of specialists. In 86% of cases, vacancies, according to company representatives, will be filled by new employees. 68% noted the possibility of retraining existing employees.

 

 

 

The report was released by the World Economic Forum and partners - the Eurasian Institute of Competitiveness and the consulting company Strategy Partners. A full version of the document. The study affected 313 employers in 20 countries, whose combined economies account for 70% of global GDP, from 12 industries. The number of their employees is about 15 million people.